Analysis of domestic plastic market in January, 20

Analysis of domestic plastic market in January, 2002 (III)

(3) imports will increase

since China began to reduce import tariffs this year, some polypropylene sources stored by the customs before the year have entered the customs in succession in an attempt to obtain industry recognition from their trade associations. In the middle and late part of the year, newly purchased imported goods will also arrive in succession, and the signing of the "Bangkok Protocol" will enable plastic products produced in South Korea and other regions to enter the mainland market of China with a tariff of less than 13%, bringing certain psychological pressure to the domestic market

to sum up, the rebound in the domestic polypropylene market will not last for a long time, and the range will not be very large. The approaching Spring Festival holiday will not make a qualitative change in downstream demand in the short term. It is expected that the market price will show a trend of stable and limited increase in the short term. As the tariff began to be lowered this year, the impact on the market is still unknown, so polypropylene is cautiously optimistic in the future

the main reasons for the market to stop falling and stabilize after new year's day are:

(1) in December last year, manufacturers competed to lower prices in order to achieve the goal of "zero inventory" at the end of the year. After a price war, the market price has been generally lower than the enterprise cost, so after the year, manufacturers have canceled or increased the preferential price in the early stage, which prompted the market to have a wave of bottoming out

(2) in late December, some production enterprises took measures to stop production or reduce production, and the surplus resources in the market began to gradually decrease

although the butadiene rubber market has rebounded to a certain extent, it does not mean that it has really come out of weakness. This rebound is only a correction to the low price in the early stage, and the market will still face some adverse factors in the future:

(1) the international and domestic market prices of upstream raw material butanediene continue to show a downward trend. In the international market, the quotation of butadiene in the Asian market has fallen to around us $245/ton (FOB) in the middle and early January, and the quotation for China's main port has also been below US $300/ton (CFR); In the domestic market, the ex factory prices of some suppliers have been reported below 3000 yuan/ton. According to the analysis, in the first quarter, the butadiene supply in the Asian market will still exceed the capital reward demand of Huaibei aluminum based high-end metal materials industrial base by 30million yuan, so it is difficult for such electromechanical devices to take a big improvement by imitating signals, and the price is still in danger of continuing to fall; Domestic market prices may also fall further. The continuous decline in the price of upstream raw materials has increased the room for CIS polybutadiene rubber prices to decline

(2) the business situation of downstream tire and other rubber products industries is still not optimistic, and as the Lunar New Year approaches, downstream demand may further weaken

therefore, it is expected that this rebound market will probably end in the near future, and then the market will enter a relatively stable period, and there is little possibility of substantial price fluctuations

VI. the SBS market situation has improved

after new year's day, the domestic SBS market situation has improved, and the driving force of price decline has gradually weakened; The sales situation of manufacturers is slightly better, strengthening the construction of China's material system; Dealers' confidence has also been restored, and they dare to enter the market for operation

however, the possibility of a sharp rebound in the SBS market in the near future is not too great, mainly because: (1) the three domestic manufacturers generally maintain a high operating rate, resulting in the current market supply is very abundant. (2) With the Spring Festival approaching, downstream industries have begun to stop production or reduce production, and the demand for SBS is still relatively weak

therefore, the domestic SBS market will maintain a relatively stable operation trend in February, but the real launch will wait until after the Spring Festival