Analysis of downstream demand of steel industry in

2022-08-09
  • Detail

Analysis of downstream demand of steel industry in 2018 determination of demand growth in machinery sector (attached figure)

downstream demand for steel mainly comes from construction (including real estate and infrastructure), machinery, automobile, energy, shipbuilding, household appliances, railway, container and others, among which construction, machinery and automobile are the three major steel fields, accounting for 53.31%, 18.73% and 7.99% respectively in 2017, The following is a specific analysis of the steel demand in these three areas

the downstream demand for steel mainly comes from construction (including real estate and infrastructure), machinery, automobile, energy, shipbuilding, household appliances, railway, container and others. Among them, construction, machinery and automobile are the three main steel fields, accounting for 53.31%, 18.73% and 7.99% respectively in 2017. The following is the analysis of the steel demand in these three fields by restoring the original setting of the computer before exiting the utilization program

construction steel is the largest variety of steel consumption in China, and its consumption accounts for more than 50% of the total steel consumption all year round. In recent years, the rapid development of the construction industry has provided a wide market for the development and application of construction steel varieties. According to the data, in, the demand for steel in the construction field was basically maintained at more than 340 million tons of reinforced composite materials. In 2017, the demand for steel in the construction sector increased by 7.50% year-on-year, reaching 387 million tons

after 2018, investment in the construction sector has weakened significantly under the tone of deleveraging, which may have a negative impact on steel demand. From the perspective of real estate demand, the marginal decline of the recovery impulse effect caused by the leveraging of the residential sector. In the first half of 2018, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of commercial housing sales area was 3.30%, compared with 16.10% in the same period last year, which constrained the continued growth of real estate investment. However, the real estate inventory has reached a historical low, and the area of commercial housing for sale in the first half of 2018 was -14.70% year-on-year. Therefore, the growth rate of real estate investment under the demand for real estate replenishment is not too weak. The pursuit of high turnover rate by real estate enterprises led to the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of new construction area in the first half of the year of 11.80%. Therefore, new construction of real estate has become an important support for steel demand in the first half of the year

specifically, according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in 2018, China's real estate development investment completed increased by 9.70% year-on-year, with a growth rate of 1.20 percentage points higher than that in 2017. The main reason is the substantial increase in land purchase fees. In 2018, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of land purchase fees reached 74.40%

in 2018, there is a user consultation on the tensile machine: how to classify the frequency of fatigue testing machine? Next, let's talk about the transmission equipment used for low speed and high torque in gear reducer 1. The cumulative year-on-year growth rates of China's housing construction, new construction and completed area are 2.50%, 11.78% and -10.58% respectively, which are 0.50% lower, 1.20% higher and 15.60% lower than those in 2017

in 2018, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of China's commercial housing sales area was 3.30%, down 12.80 percentage points from 2017; The sales volume of commercial housing increased by 13.20% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 8.30 percentage points compared with that in 2017

from the perspective of infrastructure demand, infrastructure investment has weakened significantly under the deleveraging tone. The data show that the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) in the first half of 2018 was 7.30%, and 21.10% in the same period last year

in general, the growth of real estate investment and infrastructure investment is relatively weak under the background of policy tightening and deleveraging. The demand for steel in 2018 may maintain the level of the previous year, about 387 million tons

machinery field

the machinery industry is the equipment industry of the national economy, the foundation of the materialization of science and technology, the carrier of the industrialization of high and new technology, the basic industry of national defense construction, and the industry that provides consumer electromechanical products to improve people's quality of life. The machinery industry has the characteristics of high industrial relevance, large demand elasticity, strong driving and promoting effect on economic growth, and great contribution to national accumulation and social employment

steel used in machine industry can be divided into quenched and tempered steel, spring steel, bearing steel, ultra-high strength steel, carburizing steel, nitriding steel, wear-resistant steel and free cutting steel according to the production and processing technology and use of steel

the machinery industry is a supporting industry in the middle reaches, and its steel consumption depends on the downstream end demand industries such as housing, infrastructure and automobile. In, the demand for steel in the machinery sector was basically maintained at more than 120 million tons. In 2017, the demand for steel in the machinery sector was 136 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 6.25%

since 2018, benefiting from the zhugra cycle and engineer dividends, the machinery industry will be an industry with deterministic demand growth in downstream industries, and the overall steel consumption is expected to be 1 Between 4.8 billion tons

automotive field

automotive steel mainly includes steel plate, high-quality steel (gear steel, spring steel and other special steel), section steel, strip steel, etc., and various steels account for about 70% of the total weight of automobiles. Among them, steel plate (i.e. automobile plate) accounts for the largest proportion of automobile steel, accounting for 52%, and high-quality steel accounts for 31%

in recent years, although China's car sales have increased rapidly, the car ownership per thousand people is at a very low level compared with developed countries, and even lower than the global average level of car ownership per thousand people. Generally speaking, there is still much room for growth in the car ownership in the future, thus driving the growth of the demand for automotive steel. In 2017, the demand for steel in the automotive sector reached 58 million tons, an increase of 7.41% over the previous year

however, in 2018, China's automobile production was 14.301 million units, with a year-on-year growth rate of only 2.38%. Among them, in the first quarter of 2018, there was a year-on-year decline of 1.36%, which means that the demand for steel may not increase significantly. It is estimated that the steel demand in the automotive sector will be 58 million tons in 2018, the same as last year

the above data and analysis are from the analysis report on the development prospects and investment strategic planning of China's iron and steel industry in by the forward looking Industry Research Institute

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI