Analysis of domestic polyethylene market trend in

2022-08-08
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In September, the domestic polyethylene market trend analysis

I. manufacturer dynamics

petrochemical companies are cautious in operation this month. Most of them have slightly increased linearly, while high-pressure prices basically maintain the previous pricing. Then, due to the shutdown and maintenance of some petrochemical companies, the inventory pressure is relieved compared with the previous period, and driven by the continuous rise of crude oil, petrochemical manufacturers began to increase the ex factory prices of some varieties, The maintenance devices are as follows: Panjin Ethylene Plant was shut down on the 27th, and it is planned to be overhauled for 49 days; The linear unit of Yangzi Petrochemical stopped on the 25th and is expected to start on September 17th; Tianjin United linear device stopped for maintenance on the 15th for about 40 days; Tianjin ethylene PE plant is scheduled to be shut down for 40 days on the 21st; Shanghai Jinfei low voltage device was launched on August 26. "Dykes also stressed that Bayer has ranked No. 2 in the world in the above fields at present, and stopped due to lack of raw materials

II. Market trend

in August, the international oil price continued to rise, and the cost caused the downstream PE spot to rise, with an increase of more than 4%. Petrochemical companies have been cautious in their operation this month, with most of the linear prices rising slightly, while the high-pressure prices have basically maintained the previous pricing. Then, due to the shutdown and maintenance of some petrochemical companies, the inventory pressure has eased compared with the previous period, and with the continuous rise of crude oil, petrochemical manufacturers began to raise the ex factory prices of some varieties, driving the market prices higher. However, the terminal demand has not substantially improved, and the price has risen too fast. At the same time, JTG F40 - Technical Specification for highway asphalt pavement construction has also restrained the demand. The downstream chooses to wait and see carefully, which has obvious resistance to high prices, and there is great resistance to the transaction of the firm offer

in the middle of the month, the economic environment is still uncertain, and the domestic PE fundamentals are still not much improved. Due to the large number of parking and maintenance manufacturers, the social inventory pressure is not large. Boosted by the continuous rise of crude oil, domestic petrochemical enterprises continued the trend of last week, the market quotation followed the rise, and the low-end quotation gradually disappeared. However, there was no improvement in downstream demand, which was still mainly wait-and-see, with obvious resistance to high prices, and the firm offer transaction did not improve

at the end of the month, the price of crude oil rose significantly, and now it fluctuated above $97. Supported by the cost, the petrochemical companies have continuously adjusted the price, and the PE market atmosphere has gradually warmed up. In addition, in the maintenance of some devices, some supply sources are tight, and the high quotation of traders is strong. When shipping at high prices, the downstream demand has not changed much. At present, the procurement is dominated by rigid demand, which is more resistant to high-end prices. The cautious wait-and-see atmosphere in trading and investment remains unchanged. Weak expectations for the future market, waiting for more information guidance

III. aftermarket forecast

crude oil prices fluctuate in a narrow range, but they are still at a high level to support the market. In September, some shutdown and overhaul manufacturers will restart, and the supply will increase. In terms of demand: the operating rate of PE downstream film mulching devices has increased, the early depressed market has an impact, and the manufacturer's economic strength is weak. It coincides with the high price of raw materials, which restricts the transaction to a certain extent, the demand follow-up is still slow, and the later supply and demand balance is dominated, Xue Jinlei, an analyst at business club, predicts that PE prices will remain stable in the short term

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